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As we kick off 2026, I turned to UK-based Crossborder Capital’s latest global liquidity update by Michael Howell, noting booms and bubbles cannot occur without ample liquidity. The artificial intelligence (AI) boom was born of liquidity. Without ample central bank accommodation, we would not even be talking about AI, perhaps not even whispering about it except in a few university laboratories. 

According to Howell, the 2026 financial landscape is a stage set for drama. His latest view on the prospects for crypto and risk assets in 2026 argues that while monetary inflation is here to stay as governments’ go-to fix for fiscal/budget woes, a looming downswing in global liquidity could produce turbulence for risk assets. Drawing from his analysis of cycles, correlations, and historical patterns, he likes positions in gold and cryptocurrencies as essential hedges – but advises investors to buy on dips. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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As the February 2026 reporting season gets underway, attention turns once again to earnings as ASX-listed companies begin releasing their results. This period often brings heightened market activity, with share prices reacting swiftly to earnings surprises, guidance updates and outlook commentary.

The last two reporting seasons have brought increased volatility and, as a result, significant opportunities. With many companies reluctant to provide guidance amid an unstable geopolitical environment, the prospect of earnings surprises this reporting season is more pronounced. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA), under the guidance of CEO Matt Comyn, has once again proven why it’s considered the best Australian bank. Despite a muddy economic backdrop and fierce competition in the mortgage market, the bank’s half-year FY26 (1H26) results beat analyst expectations (again).

While the headline numbers were strong and will dominate today’s commentary, a more interesting story lies in the shifting dynamics of Australia’s largest lender. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Financial Services, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Stocks We Like.

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In a deal announced today, Magellan Financial Group (ASX: MFG) will buy Barrenjoey Investment Bank. For long-term investors, it could provide the opportunity to invest in another ASX-listed investment bank. Could it be the next Macquarie Bank?

Of course, there is a long way to go from Barrenjoey’s $1.6 billion valuation to Macquarie’s $76.3 billion market capitalisation, so this blog is limited to examining today’s deal without commenting on valuation or predicting share prices. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The news that an Iranian drone reportedly struck a U.S.-linked commercial oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has done more than just spike the price of oil; it’s arguably shattered the fragile market equilibrium we’ve seen since the start of the year. And arguably, as intended, it has distracted everyone from the Epstein files.

At the time of writing Brent and WTI crude were up $US15 to $US107 a barrel. The Nikkei plummeted 4.5 per cent, and U.S. futures have cratered by as much as two per cent. So, why has a single drone strike erased billions in equity value across the globe?

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 March 2026. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary.

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On December 18, in a blog entitled Time Magazine Cover Curse, I wrote, “…Gracing the cover of the [TIME] mag isn’t a coronation but a harbinger of doom, because the moment a public figure has permeated the public discourse sufficiently to land the cover, the trajectory inevitably reverses.”

Politicians have suffered landslide defeats after being featured on the cover, as have business tycoons whose stocks plummet, and celebrities whose reputations are assassinated under sudden, intense scrutiny. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Investing Education, Market Valuation.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to reflect on how markets closed out in 2025 and what may lie ahead in 2026. Last year was again dominated by artificial intelligence (AI) and the Magnificent Seven (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia and Tesla). However, with valuations now stretched amongst these technology leaders, there may be opportunities for investors beyond the headlines.  Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Small Caps, Stocks We Like, TV Appearances.

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I joined Sean Aylmer for Fear and Greed’s Summer Series to talk about high-frequency arbitrage, how these strategies work, and why they have become an increasingly attractive alternative for sophisticated investors. We discussed how arbitrage seeks to profit from volatility and pricing inefficiencies across global asset exchanges. Importantly, we also explored how this type of strategy can complement a diversified portfolio by providing returns that are largely uncorrelated to equity markets.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Digital Asset Funds Management, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Podcast Channel.

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It’s been a chaotic morning for JB Hi-Fi (JBH) investors. If you’ve been watching the screens, you might have developed a mild case of whiplash. JB Hi-Fi shares opened over 5 per cent higher at around $80, fell to $72 (down 4 per cent), and have since clawed back above $80, reflecting a classic case of a solid half-year result clashing with a cautious outlook for the rest of 2026.

A solid 1H26 result

On the surface, JB Hi-Fi remains a poster child of execution. Sales and Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) were both up over 7 per cent year-on-year (YoY), largely meeting or exceeding consensus expectations. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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Last year, I posted a blog entitled ‘But Nothing’s Changed’, describing how the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble and market boom could end. I explained how investors will realise that even though AI technology – hailed as the 4^th Industrial Revolution – will change the course of human history, it probably won’t do so tomorrow. And therefore, share prices were at risk of setbacks because there will be commercial bumps (delays in data centre builds, changes in interest rates, shortages of energy and water, and not all companies can win) along the way to an AI ‘utopia’. While timing a change in sentiment is impossible, the hype surrounding general-purpose technologies, including AI, makes such a change inevitable. It’s always been so. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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