The defining irony of today’s stock market has got to be the yawning chasm between asset prices and their intrinsic values. As equity indices scale ever higher peaks, and as hyper-parabolic Price-to-Earnings (P/E) and Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratios are normalised, the underlying truths don’t seem to have changed. Eventually even this bubble must bust.

U.S.-based senior economist at the Centre for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in Washington, DC, and author of the ‘AI Bubble Monitor’, and U.S.-based antitrust and policy analyst Matt Stoller reckon this dynamic can be attributed to something Stoller calls the “Number Go Up Rule”– a systematic rewiring of institutional incentives to ensure corporate valuations ascend at all costs, and frequently favouring speculative mania over fundamentally productive or socially additive enterprises. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.

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San Francisco and Lisbon-based KIÉR LIÓR provides institutional investors, family offices, and direct lenders with institutional-grade oversight, underwriting and portfolio management services for international private credit portfolios.

On the subject of Private Credit, their musings are well worth your time, remembering the comments are typically U.S. and Euro-centric, where conditions and legal frameworks may not favour lenders as much as they do in Australia.

Reflecting on a recent episode of the Credit Edge podcast featuring Goldman Sachs Chief Credit Strategist Amanda Lynam, KIÉR LIÓR Managing Director Aznaur Midov noted: Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Market commentary.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss why oil prices may be giving investors a false sense of calm. While markets expect Middle East tensions to ease, the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the need to eventually replenish those supplies could create the conditions for a sharp spike in oil prices, with implications for inflation, interest rates and share markets.

Tune in from 1:45:16: ABC Statewide Drive Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Radio.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why Australia may be heading down the same path as Canada and New Zealand. Net overseas migration has nearly doubled from an average of 220,000 people per annum between 2007 and 2022 to around 423,000 per annum since May 2022, yet real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita has been positive in only 4 of the past 15 quarters. We also discussed Australia’s weak productivity growth and whether population growth has been masking a slowing economy.

Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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Based on the 2026–27 Federal Budget, the Australian Government expects its comprehensive tax reform package – anchored by changes to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and negative gearing – to raise just over $40 billion over 10 years. On an annual basis, this averages approximately $4 billion, though revenue will increase from a lower base over time due to the grandfathering and transitional rules built into the legislation.

As an aside, it has triggered widespread condemnation because, despite the changes being so significant, they weren’t taken to an election. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss the Federal Government’s changes to capital gains tax (CGT) and negative gearing, and whether the reforms will improve housing affordability for younger Australians. We explored the potential impact on property investors, first-home buyers and housing supply, as well as the broader economic consequences of reducing incentives to invest. We also discussed the upcoming SpaceX IPO, concerns around its rapid inclusion in major indices, and why calm oil prices may be masking growing risks in global energy markets.

Listen here: ABC Nightlife Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Property, Radio.

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On May 11, Wall Street’s most bullish analyst raised his year-end S&P 500 target from 7700 to 8250, the highest forecast on Wall Street. He did so because of the strength and breadth of S&P 500 earnings during the Q1 earnings reporting season.

Citing Fabulous Earnings Momentum (FEMO), Yardeni expects this year’s stock market melt-up to be more sustainable than a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)-led rally.

However, even Yardeni has turned more cautious in the near term. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources.

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The four horsemen of the Apocalypse are Conquest, War, Famine, and Death. Artificial intelligence (AI) has ‘Conquered’; in the Middle East, ‘War’ is underway and could take years to resolve, and changes afoot in enterprise-level AI spending would be akin to ‘Famine’ for AI hyperscalers that have spent trillions on scaling out the technology. All that awaits is the ‘Death’ of the AI bubble. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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