With the International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries agreeing to release 400 million barrels of oil, the largest ever since its creation in the 1970s, to lower crude prices from the war with Iran, it might inspire some investors to believe the threat to markets has been assuaged. But at the same time, Iran has attacked approximately 20 commercial vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz so far.

The Strait is now part of the Middle East war’s frontline as Iran seeks to inflict maximum economic pain on the world in response to U.S.-Israeli strikes on its territory. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary.

The Trump administration’s decision to initiate a wide-scale military campaign against Iran, recently coined Operation Epic Fury, can be viewed through a number of lenses.  Some might say the strikes have been framed by Washington as a multifaceted necessity for global and domestic security. Others may simply say, the justifications for the strikes keep changing. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary.

I have often joked that billionaire Ray Dalio, the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater, has predicted 15 of the last 3 recessions. In other words, far more than transpired.

It’s worth remembering the late Charlie Munger’s observation about forecasts: The only thing one needs to do to be a successful forecaster is to forecast often. 

Dalio is certainly a frequent prognosticator.

I can tell you, from painful personal experience, that trying to accurately predict a complex system like the global economy and financial system is nearly impossible, and it’s made more difficult by the fact that investors respond unpredictably even to the same scenarios presented at different times. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary.

I joined ABC News to discuss the market reaction to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Surging oil prices and concerns about supply disruptions have rattled global markets, prompting investors to reassess risks and reduce exposure to equities.

Watch here: ABC The Business. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

This morning on ABC Newcastle Mornings with Paul Turton, I discussed how markets respond to geopolitical shocks and why investors should keep their focus on underlying fundamentals. While conflicts can cause short-term volatility, history shows markets often recover as investors anticipate recovery spending and economic growth.

Beyond the headlines, markets are still grappling with elevated valuations, the potential disruption from artificial intelligence, and weaker economic signals such as the recent U.S. jobs report. I also noted that prolonged conflict could lift the cost of oil, fertiliser, plastics and energy, which can flow through to higher prices across the broader economy. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Radio.

How to maximise your savings with higher-yield funds with competitive returns and risk.

Looking to make your money work harder this year? Whether you’re looking to fund a better lifestyle, build your nest egg or simply grow some savings, you may want to read this article.

For many retirees – and particularly people who may be navigating their finances independently for the first time – the stock market can feel less like an ‘opportunity’, and more like a rollercoaster you never asked to board. When you are at a stage in life where preserving what you’ve built is as important as growing it, the daily ups and downs of the stock market can keep anyone awake at night.

The traditional “safe” bets, like term deposits, often fail to keep pace with the lifestyle you’ve worked so hard to earn. So, where do you turn when you want the yield of a high-performer but the stability of a fortress? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Aura Group, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular.

Yesterday afternoon I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how the conflict in the Middle East is affecting global markets. While headlines have focused on oil and petrol prices, we also discussed the potential impact on industries such as airlines, tourism and energy-intensive manufacturing. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

• LISTEN
• save this article
• POSTED IN Radio.

If you’ve been watching the news lately, you’ve seen the script: The Middle East is a tinderbox, the Strait of Hormuz is a “no-go” zone, and $120 oil is an inevitability according to JP Morgan.

But if you look at the facts and the data, the story falls apart.

Despite the headlines, oil is struggling to hold its gains. Why? Because the “New World Order” of energy isn’t being built in Tehran or Riyadh. It’s being built in North and South Americas and the “war” we’re watching looks more like a managed liquidation of the old guard than a global catastrophe. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Market commentary.

• 2 Comments
• save this article
• 2
• POSTED IN Energy / Resources, Market commentary.