I wonder whether there’s a more fundamental reason for SpaceX crashing 16 per cent overnight and 30 per cent since its June 16 high of US$225.64, beyond the headlines.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares plunged roughly 16 per cent overnight after disclosing a massive US$20 billion bond offering to fund its artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions, amid growing dilution concerns stemming from a US$60 billion stock acquisition of the AI coding platform Cursor.

SpaceX has disclosed plans to sell US$20 billion in investment-grade senior unsecured bonds to repay bridge financing and fund its aggressive artificial intelligence ambitions.

Meanwhile, the company’s agreement to acquire Anysphere (the developer of the Cursor AI coding platform) for US$60 billion in stock will dilute existing stakes. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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The rush to Electric Vehicle (EV) ‘adoption’ surged globally following the outbreak of the war in Iran and the subsequent spike in fuel prices. In Europe, new EV registrations rose by roughly 34 per cent year-on-year (YoY) across 17 major markets, while some automakers like Renault reported a 50 per cent jump in their EV order books. 

Here in Australia, new EV uptake jumped nearly 50 per cent in the first month of the conflict, nearly doubling YoY sales to account for 14.6 per cent of all new car sales.

That these buyers weren’t buying before the war began might say something about motivations: less about being environmentally friendly and more about saving the hip pocket. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing, Market commentary.

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In my latest article for The Australian, I argue that the extraordinary enthusiasm surrounding SpaceX’s Initial Public Offering (IPO) may be a warning sign that markets are entering a late-stage speculative phase. Drawing parallels with major thematic IPOs that preceded previous market peaks, I examine how Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), passive investment flows, Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven optimism and a growing disconnect between valuations and fundamentals are creating conditions that resemble past market bubbles. The key question for investors is whether today’s market is being driven by sustainable earnings growth or by speculation that could ultimately prove unsustainable.

Download the article here: Gravity-defying SpaceX IPO flags warning of market crash landing

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, In the Press, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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The Federal Labor Government’s 2026-27 Budget tax reform package represents the most sweeping overhaul of Australia’s investment tax landscape in nearly three decades. By winding back the traditional pillars of wealth creation – specifically the 50 per cent Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount and negative gearing on established residential property – the government has fundamentally altered the math of investing.

While today’s major policy concessions (including exemptions for testamentary trusts and a step back from sweeping ministerial discretionary powers) provide some targeted relief, the core framework remains intact.

The clear takeaway for investors is a systemic structural shift: the traditional focus on heavily leveraged capital growth has been severely compromised, making high-yielding income generation far more appealing. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular, Property.

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If you want to know where the stock market might be headed, you have to look at the economic gravity being exerted by the bond market. Right now, U.S. stocks and bonds appear to be on a dangerous collision course.

Think of it in terms of a feedback loop: soaring stock prices have made U.S. households feel incredibly wealthy – with equity holdings sitting at a record 250 per cent of disposable income – which keeps consumer spending hot and inflation sticky. At the same time, tech giants are pouring billions into data centres, further heating up the economy.

As the new U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Chair, Kevin Warsh, just hinted, inflation won’t come down. So bond yields won’t drop until the stock market takes a meaningful breather to cool things off. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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In my latest Firstlinks article, I explore whether artificial intelligence (AI) is following the familiar path of past technology bubbles. As businesses shift from AI experimentation to demanding measurable returns, the question becomes whether the trillions spent on AI infrastructure will ultimately generate enough revenue to justify today’s lofty valuations.

You can read the article via Firstlinks here: Have AI’s four horseman arrived? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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“You cannot be afraid of new technologies. I think that this tenet passed Warren Buffett by. As he is the greatest investor of all time, I think it’s important to recognise that if he were not afraid of product cycles and obsolescence, he would have made much more these last few years than he did. Now, I know we shouldn’t criticise someone of his unbelievable prowess, but we must also recognise that it was wrong not to include technology stocks in the portfolio…[they] are creating too much wealth to ignore.”

With Musk now the world’s first recorded trillionaire after SpaceX’s float last Friday, you might be thinking the above quote has merit, especially as 60 per cent of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio is sitting in cash. 

But the above quote, by Jim Cramer, was made in January 2000, just three months before the Dot.Com crash wiped 76.81 per cent from the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite index and investors saw an estimated US$5 trillion in paper wealth evaporate between 2000 and 2002. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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What 30 June means for investors in managed funds

While many people this time of year are focusing on winter holidays and tax returns, investors in actively managed equity funds like those offered by Montgomery are likely watching for their distributions.

This article explains what a managed fund distribution is, what drives it, how it impacts your investment, and answers a few common questions we receive at this time of year. Continue…

by Rhodri Taylor Posted in Popular.

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