Today on Ausbiz, I pushed back on forecasts calling for a 20–40 per cent collapse in Australian housing prices. In my view, that outcome is highly unlikely given the way our system is structured.

Yes, prices can fall. But when you’re bringing in tens of thousands of people each month and vacancy rates are sitting around 1 per cent, supply simply isn’t keeping up with demand. That imbalance continues to support prices. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property, TV Appearances.

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China has supported a ceasefire in the Middle East and JD Vance made his first pilgrimage to meet with senior Iranian leaders. And while Donald Trump’s exit would inevitably be messy, and riddled with false starts, it seems reasonably safe to assume the process of ending the conflict began last month.

It seems the market received the brief. The ASX 200 is up almost 6 per cent from its March 23 lows, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are up 11 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, from their lows on March 30.

The remaining question for investors is what happens next.

This article was first published in The Australian on 24 April 2026. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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Travellers to Switzerland overwhelmingly describe the alpine nation as breathtaking, safe, and efficient – a dream destination with dreamlike Alpine landscapes. Those with a keen eye will also notice that one of the most beautiful places they have ever visited is

expensive, but it’s clean, the public transport is punctual, and the villages are charming. I have often heard friends return with the phrase “Everything just works”. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Global markets.

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Are housing prices on the way down, and what does war in the Middle East mean for markets, investors and their superannuation?

I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to unpack these issues, explaining why forecasts of sharp housing declines are unlikely given the strong incentives supporting prices, from migration to government policy and bank balance sheets. We also discussed how rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions could delay rate cuts, the potential for recent market gains to fade, and how the “SaaSpocalypse” (Software as a Service apocalypse) and artificial intelligence (AI) are impacting companies and investors.

Tune in to hear the segment: ABC Nightlife. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In this video insight, I explain why, while economists continue debating whether a recession is coming, many Australians are already living through one, as falling retail volumes, reduced discretionary spending and rising everyday costs take hold. Drawing on real-world examples from business owners and households, I highlight how shrinking disposable income is driving cutbacks, before outlining practical steps to prepare, including reducing non-essential spending, paying down high-cost debt and protecting your primary source of income. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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Corporate strategic pivots are common throughout history and particularly during market booms. Recall the mining companies that became internet companies during the internet bubble of 1999. Back then, merely adding “.com” to a company’s name saw its share price surge. 

In the 1920s, radio was the ‘Internet and artificial intelligence (AI)’ equivalent of its day. It was the first time an electronic buzzword could instantly inflate a company’s value, and between 1922 and 1929, sales of radio equipment in the U.S. jumped from US$60 million to over US$840 million. Investors were so hungry for radio exposure that any company adding the word to its name saw its stock soar. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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The gigawatt IPOs

Ahead of a multi-billion-dollar Australian data centre Initial Public Offering (IPO), many local investors are taking a particular interest in the sector, swatting up on everything they can learn. Of particular interest are the latest developments at Datacentre hopeful Fermi America.

In the age of Agentic Artificial Intelligence (AI), building the world’s largest data centre sounds like a license to print money. But as Fermi America shareholders are currently discovering, even having the former U.S. Secretary of Energy as a co-founder and the Trump name on the door doesn’t make concrete pour any faster. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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On ABC Newcastle Mornings earlier today, I discussed rising recession risks and why, for many Australians, it already feels like one as cost-of-living pressures, high debt and shrinking disposable income take hold. I also shared practical steps households can take now to prepare, from cutting non-essential spending to building a financial buffer. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.

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