In my article for Firstlinks, I explore the uneasy disconnect between human tragedy and market resilience. While war brings immeasurable suffering, history shows that equity markets often respond with surprising steadiness. From brief sell-offs ahead of conflict to rapid recoveries during it, markets seem to march on, focused on profits even as headlines scream chaos. With the current Middle East conflict unfolding, investors are once again asking: will history repeat itself, or is this time different?

You can read the article here: Firstlinks – War can’t be good, can it?

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

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The market has surged, jumping 2.6 per cent in a single day on news of a ceasefire in the Middle East. After weeks of volatility, the key question now is whether this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery – or just another short-lived rally.

I joined Sean Aylmer to discuss what’s really driving the rebound. While the rally appears genuine, the underlying risks haven’t disappeared. In uncertain times like these, I also find myself returning to the timeless principles of long-term investing and discipline that have guided some of the world’s most successful investors.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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What’s war good for? With apologies to Motown songwriters Norman Whitfield and Barrett Strong, absolutely nothing from humanity’s point of view. While the human cost of conflict – measured in lives lost, families displaced, and immense suffering – is profound and undeniable, the historical relationship between geopolitical chaos and long-term market valuations is remarkably detached, perhaps because markets grind on, focused on profits and with what appears to be indifference to the tragedies that dominate the headlines. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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The upcoming listing of Firmus on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) is being pitched as a generational opportunity to capitalise on the artificial intelligence boom, yet a closer examination of the company’s artificial intelligence (AI) Factory model reveals a series of architectural and financial cracks that prospective investors should scrutinise. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss recent movements in U.S. markets, which have edged higher, and the ongoing uncertainty around when the war might end. We also explored the potential implications for Australia, noting that local markets often take their lead from the U.S. and are therefore likely to remain cautious. Unless there is a significant escalation – such as a more aggressive move by Trump against Iran – markets are expected to drift sideways in the near term.

Listen to the segment from 37:00 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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On ABC Statewide Drive, I discussed why geopolitical shocks have historically caused short-term market volatility rather than lasting weakness, with many conflicts followed by relatively swift recoveries and resilient equity returns. I also noted that while the current Middle East conflict is unlikely to become a world war, investors still need to watch the broader risks beyond the headlines, including elevated valuations, persistent inflation, higher oil prices, rising U.S. debt and the unpredictability of Donald Trump, all of which could make 2026 a more volatile and consolidating year for markets.

Tune into the segment from 1:44:38 here: ABC Statewide Drive – conflict and markets

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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I know everyone is focused on Iran and oil at the moment, but when the conflict eventually ends, investors will cheer…and return to the themes that previously dominated markets.

And that theme is artificial intelligence (AI).

At Montgomery, we have always preached that, in the long run, share prices follow a simple trajectory: the present value of future cash flows or the ‘intrinsic value’ of a stock. We have long advocated investors look for “great” businesses with high returns on incremental invested capital and durable competitive advantages.

From time to time, however, the market enters a period of “narrative-driven” exuberance where the arithmetic is ignored in favour of a grand story. A theme. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz to discuss why geopolitical shocks often coincide with resilient equity markets. History shows that while wars and major conflicts can trigger sharp initial sell-offs, markets have often recovered quickly and, in some cases, delivered strong returns during those periods. During World War I, for example, U.S. equities initially fell by around 30 per cent before going on to generate average annual gains of close to 7 per cent between 1915 and 1918, including a particularly strong rebound in 1915. World War II also aligned with solid Dow Jones returns, depending on the start and end dates used. And according to data from LPL Financial on 22 major non-financial shocks since Pearl Harbor, markets have typically fallen by around 5 per cent before recovering fully within about six weeks. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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